Who wins?
Before kick-offCompare model and market
- Predicted score
- 1.6 – 1.5
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- Both teams score
- 62%
- Team strength today
- Chelsea: 99%Man United: 94%
Green marks the team with the higher win chance in each row. The prediction uses market prices where available. Team strength is an estimated lineup adjustment; 100% means no estimated reduction. No bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model alone.
Team news
Latest headlinesNo headlines gathered yet. The research squad collects them during the day.
Players to watch
Chance to score / assistChelsea
| Player | Form | Scores | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| João PedroLikely starter · about 1 goal every 2.1 games | Steady | 34% | 7% |
| PalmerLikely starter · about 1 goal every 3.5 games | Steady | 27% | 16% |
| RogersLikely starter · about 1 goal every 4.6 games | ❄️ Off form | 21% | 18% |
| NetoLikely starter · about 1 goal every 5.7 games | Steady | 17% | 21% |
| WelbeckLikely sub · about 1 goal every 2.6 games | Steady | 7% | 2% |
| LacroixLikely starter · about 1 goal every 15 games | Steady | 6% | 4% |
| HendersonLikely starter · about 1 goal every 13 games | Steady | 6% | 11% |
| LaviaLikely sub · about 1 goal every 6.5 games | Steady | 5% | 4% |
| CaicedoLikely sub · about 1 goal every 16 games | Steady | 3% | 5% |
| BarcoLikely sub · about 1 goal every 8.5 games | Steady | 3% | 3% |
| ColwillLikely starter · about 1 goal every 42 games | Steady | 2% | 4% |
Man United
| Player | Form | Scores | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| MbeumoLikely starter · about 1 goal every 2.4 games | ❄️ Off form | 37% | 15% |
| B.FernandesLikely starter · about 1 goal every 3.5 games | ❄️ Off form | 28% | 24% |
| CunhaLikely starter · about 1 goal every 5.4 games | Steady | 14% | 11% |
| TielemansLikely starter · about 1 goal every 11 games | Steady | 8% | 15% |
| AmadLikely sub · about 1 goal every 6.1 games | Steady | 7% | 6% |
| Rashford75% fitLikely sub · about 1 goal every 6.4 games | Steady | 5% | 4% |
| MaguireLikely starter · about 1 goal every 20 games | Steady | 5% | 5% |
| DalotLikely starter · about 1 goal every 20 games | Steady | 5% | 6% |
| ZirkzeeLikely sub · about 1 goal every 3.1 games | Steady | 4% | 1% |
| Andrey SantosLikely sub · about 1 goal every 9 games | Steady | 4% | 3% |
| BalebaLikely sub · about 1 goal every 14 games | Steady | 2% | 2% |
Team chemistry
From this season's gamesChelsea
1.6 points a game this season · rotates a lot (2.7 changes a game)
Best partnerships
- Colwill + João Pedro2.2 pts/game · 5 games
- Hato + Colwill2.1 pts/game · 4 games
- João Pedro + Lacroix2.1 pts/game · 5 games
Most missed when out
- Colwill1.9 with · 1.1 without
- João Pedro1.9 with · 1.1 without
- Acheampong1.9 with · 1.3 without
Man United
1.3 points a game this season · rotates a lot (1.8 changes a game)
Best partnerships
- Martinez + Shaw1.4 pts/game · 4 games
- Shaw + Mainoo1.4 pts/game · 4 games
- Tielemans + Rashford1.3 pts/game · 4 games
Bet builder
Priced by simulationSuggested starting pick
- ✓ Chelsea or draw65%
- ✓ Over 1.5 goals81%
- Chance it lands
- 53%
- Fair odds
- 1.87
- 10/11
- Take it at
- 1.97+
Build your own ▾
Result
Goals
Scorers
Assists
Priced from 20,000 simulated matches using our probabilities (predicted goals 1.6–1.5). Bookmakers usually build in a big margin on bet builders, so only take one at or above the “take it at” price. Not backtested. 18+, bet responsibly.
Value bets
Priced above fairNo value bets right now. Bookmakers price most matches well, and no bet is better than a bad one.
Form & table
Form and table aren’t available for this match yet.
Best odds
Highest price across bookmakersNo prices yet.