Who wins?
Before kick-offCompare model and market
- Predicted score
- 1.8 – 1.2
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- Both teams score
- 60%
- Team strength today
- Man City: 95%Brighton: 98%
Green marks the team with the higher win chance in each row. The prediction uses market prices where available. Team strength is an estimated lineup adjustment; 100% means no estimated reduction. No bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model alone.
Team news
Latest headlinesNo headlines gathered yet. The research squad collects them during the day.
Players to watch
Chance to score / assistMan City
| Player | Form | Scores | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| HaalandLikely starter · about 1 goal every 1.4 games | Steady | 50% | 10% |
| NdiayeLikely starter · about 1 goal every 4.7 games | Steady | 16% | 11% |
| EnzoLikely starter · about 1 goal every 4.1 games | Steady | 15% | 14% |
| CherkiLikely starter · about 1 goal every 4.3 games | Steady | 13% | 21% |
| FodenLikely sub · about 1 goal every 2.8 games | Steady | 13% | 11% |
| GuéhiLikely starter · about 1 goal every 10 games | ❄️ Off form | 9% | 7% |
| O'Reilly75% fitLikely sub · about 1 goal every 4.8 games | Steady | 7% | 4% |
| GvardiolLikely starter · about 1 goal every 11 games | Steady | 6% | 7% |
| DokuLikely sub · about 1 goal every 6.1 games | Steady | 5% | 11% |
| AndersonLikely starter · about 1 goal every 14 games | Steady | 5% | 10% |
| RúbenLikely starter · about 1 goal every 19 games | Steady | 5% | 7% |
Brighton
| Player | Form | Scores | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| KostoulasLikely starter · about 1 goal every 3 games | Steady | 21% | 6% |
| GroßLikely starter · about 1 goal every 5.2 games | Steady | 15% | 16% |
| GomezLikely starter · about 1 goal every 5.4 games | ❄️ Off form | 14% | 9% |
| AyariLikely starter · about 1 goal every 6.2 games | Steady | 12% | 5% |
| De CuyperLikely starter · about 1 goal every 6.8 games | ❄️ Off form | 11% | 14% |
| AndrésLikely starter · about 1 goal every 7.4 games | Steady | 8% | 8% |
| VuskovicLikely starter · about 1 goal every 10 games | Steady | 8% | 4% |
| YalcouyéLikely sub · about 1 goal every 4.6 games | Steady | 7% | 5% |
| F.KadıoğluLikely starter · about 1 goal every 24 games | Steady | 3% | 5% |
| HinshelwoodLikely sub · about 1 goal every 2.1 games | Steady | 2% | 1% |
| BoscagliLikely starter · about 1 goal every 37 games | Steady | 2% | 7% |
Team chemistry
From this season's gamesMan City
2.8 points a game this season · rotates a lot (1.8 changes a game)
Best partnerships
- Donnarumma + Guéhi2.9 pts/game · 7 games
- Donnarumma + Rúben2.9 pts/game · 7 games
- Donnarumma + Haaland2.9 pts/game · 7 games
Most missed when out
- Donnarumma2.9 with · 2.7 without
- Guéhi2.9 with · 2.7 without
- Rúben2.9 with · 2.7 without
Brighton
2.3 points a game this season · settled side (1.2 changes a game)
Best partnerships
- Verbruggen + Ayari2.5 pts/game · 6 games
- Boscagli + Ayari2.5 pts/game · 6 games
- De Cuyper + Ayari2.5 pts/game · 6 games
Most missed when out
- Andrés2.6 with · 2.0 without
Bet builder
Priced by simulationSuggested starting pick
- ✓ Man City or draw73%
- ✓ Over 1.5 goals81%
- Chance it lands
- 60%
- Fair odds
- 1.66
- 4/6
- Take it at
- 1.74+
Build your own ▾
Result
Goals
Scorers
Assists
Priced from 20,000 simulated matches using our probabilities (predicted goals 1.8–1.3). Bookmakers usually build in a big margin on bet builders, so only take one at or above the “take it at” price. Not backtested. 18+, bet responsibly.
Value bets
Priced above fairNo value bets right now. Bookmakers price most matches well, and no bet is better than a bad one.
Form & table
Form and table aren’t available for this match yet.
Best odds
Highest price across bookmakersNo prices yet.